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Analysis of the market situation of transportation infrastructure construction in the second half of 2017
Release time: 2018-04-13

Modest rebound in global economic growth

From the perspective of the international environment, the global economic growth rate will rebound moderately. According to the World Bank ’s latest “Global Economic Outlook” forecast, the global economy is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2017, slightly higher than 2.3% in 2016. The overall economic growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies may be 3.4% from 2016 It rose to 4.2%.

According to World Bank forecasts, with the recovery of manufacturing and trade, increasing market confidence, and stabilization of commodity prices, emerging markets and developing economies that export commodities will resume growth. At the same time, new trade restrictions may subvert the welcome recovery in global trade. Persistent policy uncertainty may damage corporate confidence and investment. In the case of very small financial market fluctuations, a sudden re-assessment of market risks for policy-related risks or the speed of normalization of monetary policies in advanced economies may lead to financial turmoil. In the long run, continued weakness in productivity and investment growth could weaken growth prospects in emerging markets and developing economies.

In terms of subregions, due to the economic recovery of commodity exporting countries in Thailand and the acceleration of economic growth in Thailand, the impact of the gradual slowdown of China's economic growth has been offset by the East Asian Pacific region. Growth is accelerating with the help of reduced policy uncertainty; Russia has experienced a two-year economic recession, driven by strong consumption, and the economy grew slightly in 2017; Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to step out of the economic recession led by Brazil and Argentina; the Middle East The negative impact of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries 'output cuts in North Africa on oil exporting countries has outpaced the improvement in oil importing countries' conditions, and economic growth may slow down; sub-Saharan Africa ’s growth rate in 2017 is expected to accelerate to 2.6%, but The premise is a slight rebound in commodity prices and reforms to address macroeconomic imbalances.

The domestic economy is stabilizing

Since the second quarter of 2017, the stability of the domestic economy has become clearer, and positive factors have continued to increase. On June 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national economic operation data for May. Various data show that the national economic operation is generally stable, stable and stable, and the coordination and stability of economic growth are three major characteristics, further consolidating this year. Since the stable and good development trend.

The overall performance of the national economic operation in May reflected the steady growth of production and demand, continued and stable employment, good price stability, and continued improvement in the international balance of payments. GDP growth has been in a narrow range of 6.7% to 6.9% for seven consecutive quarters. Interval fluctuations. While domestic demand continues to play its role as the main engine, external demand continues to improve, increasing its contribution to economic growth. From the perspective of the industrial structure, while the service industry maintained rapid growth, the industrial growth rate was stable and corporate efficiency improved. This improvement in stability and coordination has provided greater resilience to the operation of the national economy and will help to further consolidate the stable and better development situation.

Steady growth in investment in fixed assets

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May 2017, national fixed asset investment was 20.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, of which infrastructure investment was 4.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%. The proportion of total investment was 20.8%, an increase of 2.2% over the same period of last year; the contribution rate to total investment growth was 45.6%, which drove investment growth by 3.9%.

Construction industry continues to expand at high levels

According to the National Bureau of Statistics data, the construction industry market demand continued to increase in May 2017, and corporate production activities were relatively active. The construction industry business activity index was 60.4%, although it was 1.2% lower than last month, but still 1% higher than the same period last year. It is located in a high economic range of more than 60% for 9 consecutive months.

From the perspective of labor demand, the employment index of the construction industry in May was 52.4%, an increase of 0.5% and 2.5% over the previous month and the same period of last year, which rose for two consecutive months, indicating that the employment of construction enterprises continued to increase.

Judging from market expectations, the construction industry business activity expectation index in May 2017 was 65.8%, an increase of 0.7% from the previous month. This is consistent with the investment data of the real estate industry and infrastructure, and companies can remain optimistic about future development.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the new orders index for the construction industry in May was 54.1%, a decrease of 1.3% from the previous month and higher than the threshold. The construction industry input price index was 58.4%, an increase of 5.6% from the previous month. The construction industry sales price index was 52.9%, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous month.

The above-mentioned construction sub-indexes are all over 50%, reflecting that the industry as a whole is expanding.

Market situation

"Iron Gongji" still has great growth potential

In the first half of 2017, national highway construction investment continued to grow strongly. According to data from the Ministry of Transport, from January to May, national highway construction investment was 649.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.7%, and the growth rate increased by 25% compared with the same period in 2016. Among them, the eastern region increased by 45.7%, the western region increased by 22.9%, and the eastern region increased by 29.7%.

According to the data of the Railway Corporation, from January to May, national railway fixed asset investment was 212.5 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year, of which national railway fixed asset investment was 205.1 billion yuan, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year.

According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, from January to May, the cumulative investment in fixed assets for civil aviation construction was 32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. Among them, the growth rate of urban rail transit is particularly conspicuous. According to statistics from China's rail transit network, urban rail transit investment in the first quarter of 2017 was 50.101 billion yuan, an increase of 523.22% year-on-year.

On May 25, Minister of Transport Li Xiaopeng said that by 2020, it is expected that high-speed railways will cover more than 80% of China's millions of cities, and railways, highways and civil aviation airports will basically cover cities with more than 200,000 permanent residents. Overall, the railway, highway, and urban rail transit businesses still have the potential to continue to grow.

Water transport market continues to decline

From January to May 2017, China's investment in inland and coastal construction was approximately 41.496 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 6.06% year-on-year. Since October 2015, this indicator has continued to be negative.

The existing data is in line with the author's prediction of the decline of the water transport market based on the situation at the beginning of the year. It is estimated that the scale of national water transport construction investment will be less than 80 billion yuan in the second half of the year.

In terms of coastal construction, from January to May, the investment in coastal construction nationwide was only 20.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5%, and continued to show a sharp decline. The contraction of coastal construction investment throughout the year will not change in the near future.

Significant adjustments in the real estate market

Since the beginning of this year, the real estate market has continued to strengthen its regulation and control. Not only have the number of cities that introduced regulation and control measures increased, but the intensity of regulation and control in some cities is also increasing. At present, the results of the regulation have begun to appear.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in April, the prices of newly-built commercial housing in 15 cities in the first-tier and hot-tier second-tier cities all fell from the previous month, falling by 0.7% to 7.4%. Looking at the chain ratio, the prices of newly-built commercial housing in 9 cities fell or stayed the same, and the growth rates in 5 cities fell back, ranging from 0.2% to 1.1%. Among the 70 large and medium cities, the prices of newly-built commercial housing in 30 cities fell year-on-year, and 31 cities fell or decreased.

New rounds of control measures have been introduced successively from mid to late March, and their effect on the real estate market will continue to appear. On the whole, the rapid rise in housing prices in hot cities has been basically suppressed, and the real estate market is generally stable.

An excessively rapid rise in housing prices is not conducive to the stability of the macro economy, nor is it conducive to solving the problem of living in a home. The real estate market has a strong role in driving the economy, and a sharp decline is not conducive to economic stability. Therefore, the stable and healthy development of the real estate market is the goal pursued by macro-control. In the short term, some urban real estate markets have entered a wait-and-see period.

Steady operation of foreign engineering contracting market

Recently, the international engineering contracting market has been operating steadily. According to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, from January to May, China ’s foreign contracted project turnover was US $ 50.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, and the value of newly signed contracts was US $ 75.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. There are many new features in the development of the industry: first, significant progress has been made in the transformation and upgrading of enterprises' business and model innovation; second, the rapid growth of business in countries along the “Belt and Road” and Asian markets; and third, transportation, power, and construction have become business growth areas. Area of advantage.

The recent developments facing the industry are as follows.

On the one hand, the industry is in a rare period of historical development opportunities. At present, with the pull of infrastructure construction, economic growth has become a general consensus, and developing countries have a strong demand for infrastructure gaps, developed country infrastructure upgrades, and regional connectivity. The international cooperation around the “Belt and Road” initiative and capacity cooperation has continued to deepen. The just-concluded “Belt and Road” International Cooperation Summit Forum has reached a series of important results in deepening project cooperation, promoting facility connectivity, expanding industrial investment, and strengthening financial cooperation. Financial institutions such as the Silk Road Fund, China Development Bank, and Export-Import Bank provide more than several hundred billion yuan in capital support. National markets along the “Belt and Road” will continue to be the growth point and driving force for the development of the industry. The next development offers a rare opportunity.

On the other hand, business development still faces some outstanding difficulties and challenges. At present, the international environment is undergoing profound changes, the world economic recovery is still fragile, some African and Latin American countries are experiencing increased financial pressure and lack of construction funds; political, security, economic and other risk issues are still prominent, and companies are faced with expanding business and investing Increased uncertainty. At the same time, companies in various countries seek greater development space through structural adjustment, technological innovation and transnational operations, and Chinese companies face increasing external competition in the international market.

In addition, because Chinese enterprises' businesses are mainly concentrated in the low-end field, traditional competitive advantages have declined, homogeneous competition is still outstanding, and the company's business management capabilities still need to be further improved. These have become bottlenecks that restrict the development of industry enterprises.

Industry policy planning

The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" for the construction industry

On May 4, the Ministry of Housing and Construction issued and issued the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" for the development of the construction industry. The plan proposed that the main goals for the development of the construction industry in the next five years are as follows.

(1) Market size target. Based on the completion of the task of investment and construction of fixed assets in the whole society, the total annual output value of the national construction industry increased by 7%, and the average annual added value of the construction industry increased by 5.5%. Engineering consulting service enterprises such as cost consulting and bidding agency have an average annual growth of 8%; the national construction enterprises' external engineering contracting turnover has an average annual growth of 6%, further consolidating the pillar position of the construction industry in the national economy.

(2) Adjustment of industrial structure. Promote large-scale enterprises to become better and stronger, and form a group of leading enterprises with integrated development and construction, full-process engineering consulting services, general contracting as the main business body and leading technology management. Vigorously develop professional construction, and promote the rapid development of professional contracting enterprises based on specific products, technologies, processes, types of work, and equipment. Carry forward the spirit of craftsmen and cultivate high-quality construction workers. By 2020, the number of construction workers above the intermediate level in the construction industry will reach 3 million. Strengthen business format innovation, and promote the continuous generation of new building contracting service methods and enterprises characterized by "Internet +".

(3) Technical progress goals. Consolidate and maintain the international technological leadership in the fields of super high-rise building construction, high-speed railways, expressways, large-scale dams, ultra-long-distance offshore bridges, and nuclear power plants. Intensify the promotion of informatization and increase the number of newly started projects using BIM technology. The investment in technological research and development of Grade A engineering survey and design enterprises, and general construction contracting enterprises above the first level accounted for 1% of the company's operating income based on the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan period.

(4) Development goals for building energy efficiency and green buildings. All new civil buildings in cities and towns have met the requirements of energy-saving standards, and the energy efficiency level has increased by 20% compared with 2015. By 2020, the proportion of green buildings in cities and towns will reach 50% of newly-built buildings, the area of newly completed fully-furnished residential buildings will start at 30%, and the proportion of green building materials will reach 40%. Prefabricated building area accounts for 15% of new building area.

(5) Supervision target of construction market. Accelerate the revision of laws and regulations such as the Construction Law and further improve the legal system of the construction market. The construction guarantee, insurance system and the construction cost management system that are compatible with the market economy have basically been established. The construction market access system has been more scientific and improved, and a unified, open, fair and orderly construction market rules and pattern have basically formed. National construction worker training, skills appraisal, occupational identification, and information management systems are basically complete. The behavior of all parties in the market is basically standardized, and the order of the construction market has improved significantly.

(6) Quality and safety supervision objectives. The construction engineering quality and safety regulations and systems have been further improved, the quality and safety supervision mechanism has been further improved, the project quality level has been comprehensively improved, and the national key project quality has maintained an international advanced level. The situation of construction safety production has improved steadily, and the disaster resistance of construction has been steadily improved. Phased results were achieved in the standardization reform of engineering construction.

The first national municipal infrastructure plan released and implemented

With the consent of the State Council, the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” for the planning and construction of national urban municipal infrastructure, which was prepared by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development and the Development and Reform Commission, was officially released for implementation on May 25, 2017.

The plan states that during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period from 2020, China will implement 12 municipal foundations, including urban road network encryption, rail transit, comprehensive pipe corridors, treatment of black and stinky water bodies, drainage and flood prevention facilities, and sponge city construction. Facilities key projects. The plan proposes that new underground roads in new urban areas must be constructed with comprehensive underground corridors, and the capacity to prevent waterlogging in megacities should be more than once in 50 years. For underground pipe corridors, in 2017, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development plans to start a new underground comprehensive pipe corridor over 2000km.

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